I just came back from Lombok on Thur.  I got only one word for the whole trip “GREAT!!”.  For those who don’t know where is Lombok, is an island beside Bali.  Compared to Bali, Lombok is less touristy and more friendly.  The highlight of the trip for me was the dive @ Gilis (consists of 3 smaller islands)   The crystal clear water @ Gili was really inviting. If you think the beach is great, you should get below it.  I saw my first turtle within 5 minutes of my descend into the water, and the coral wall is simply fantastic. Although the under current was a bit strong, but after overcoming/adjusting to it, you will start to appreciate the sight surrounding you.  This dive really rekindled my love for the ocean after a 8 years break   My first major purchase after my homecoming was to purchase my fins@ ADEX 08.

The only flip side of this trip was the delay to my CFA revision, originally intended to complete my Econ and Quant section during my week hol but guess what??!!  I covered NOTHING   Still I have no regrets, all study but no play made jack a dull, right!!   Guess, i just have to bite the bullet and kick in my afterburner from now onward.

 Today, only the bookies and gamblers are interested in the result of the local soccer.  Sometime, I wondered what sport will unite Singaporean, like soccer scene in 1990s, perhaps NONE

Interestingly, several days ago MM Lee mentioned something about re-merger of Singapore and Malaysia.  Based on today context, i opined that this is a tall order but let i proposed a smaller step, that is to bring the Malaysia Cup back (for politically correct term, we called it Malaysia-Singapore Cup).  Immediately, I see 3 key benefits; one is economical benefits for both countries; second, we can restate the glory of soccer to national sport level; third, any form of re-merger or integration got to start somewhere, sport seem like a good seeding ground.

Yesterday, Fed annonuced a 50bp cut to both Fed and discount rate.  Major indices rally upon the good news (STI up 100+, HSI up 1000+, DOW up 300+).  This is a worrying trend, frankly i expected only a 25bp cut, as it will show that the US economy is still holding up but with a 50bp it implied that the US economy might be much worse than expected.  Economics 101, falling interest rate is a sign of recession.

With the subprime woes still at sight, the latest Fed move have invited a new monster on-board, the yen carrying trade.  Vaguely, I still remembered  more than 10 years ago, USD/YEN was near 100, there was even talk that to re-value yen so that is 1:1 to USD.  Similar to Subprime, no one know what is the extent of the yen carry trade.  If US indeed falling into a recession, the global economy will be affected, starting with China with major of its export heading to US.  This may be the straw that break the camel back (China bubble). If this happens, I will coined this as the “Era of the Twin Tower”, US and China.  Remember you read this term from here first.

Although I still hope for STI to surge to 4000 by year end but there are too much uncertainties.

P.S. Read from kleer blog that Credit Sussie downgraded KepCorp to Sell with TP $7.8 (now is trading $14), erm.. do they know something that we don’t??

 Past month, I was tied up by my studies (CFA) hence didn’t even bother to blog.  Really after a long break (about 5 years) since my uni, is a challenge to pick up study again, especially on part time basis.  That is a topic which i intend to talk in future after i have completed the ordeal

Despite the market downturn in recent days/week, i intend to share with you people a more optimistic outlook.   I went for the Singapore Hippo&Duck Tour last week and yesterday the fireworks @Marina. And what i saw was our beautiful CDB skyline and up-coming IR and the strength of the future economic growth. 

This further my conviction that the recent market downturn is only temporal and the next bull when it arrives will be hard and furious. STI tested 3000 on Friday but the rebound was miraclous, mimicked the thursday DOW (down 325 then recovered).   Fed announced a discount of 50 point for a window period and the stock market reacted with a 200+ jump.  STI coupled with NDP rally, should see at least 100 jump on monday opening.  I know a lot of people are anticipating the current downtrend will persisted till Oct/Nov.  Given the lighting speed of the market which caught many central banks, institional players off-guard, I suspected the market cycle is really short circuit i.e. the bear has ran past us but we still dun know hence resulting a early bull coming (even before Oct).

My latest holding

1.KepLand – Awaiting a surge in Oct/Nov when the CBD office rental is due to renew in Nov.

2.BH Global – Provide marine cables for major shipping and rig companies, will ride the wave of marine boom.

3.Riverstone – A market leader in a niche market, providing rubber glove for medical usages.

4.Olam - Control supply chain from end to end, excellent buz model.

I was won over by the coolest of the touch function, and impatient to wait for the iphone to reach our shore (next year). Anyway even iphone is here now,  I may not buy due to the high price US499 (retail in spore maybe $1200 or higher, the dealer also must earn mah!!)

I have been using the phone for 1 week, and really loved it.  btw, this is my first smart phone.

Although the CNET review only rated it 6.3, but personally i give it a 8.8 for the small sized, nice design, good touch and easy on budget. You may see CNET review http://reviews.cnet.com/smart-phones/htc-touch/4505-6452_7-32465595.html  here.

Despite the mega sale, I felt that prices is not really that great, for branded and neccessity stuff, is cheaper in Singapore and China respectively. But the food in KL (which is my main purpose there), is really wide ranging.. in short = BAGUS even the ordinary hawker food is good

I did managed to catch up with my old pal, Ah Haw, over the 2 dinners.  And guess what, he is coming to singapore today to attend a wedding reception, so my turn to bring him to the one of the most happening place in singapore, erm.. I was thinking of the Cannery or Cafe de Mar (St James is out, too crowded).

In Bintan, I enjoyed the most for a simple reason, i was with my loved ones

1.  Gallant

2.  Eastern

3. KepLand 

4. LifeBrandz

Although i am still heavily vested, the thought of the bull run ending still looms but I held on to the belief of mid to long term investing.

Woke early this morning, nothiing much to do so went look at the other people blog

And chanced upon a DNApersonsality test and i also took the test.  Result reflected that i am a genuine + leader, maybe like one of my fave general.

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What is leadership?  I remembered this is one of the lesson which is compuslory in all my formal military training, e.g. OCS, Advanced School..etc.  Till, today I think SAF is still grappling with the concept of leadership.  Just ask anyone from the street, on which SAF general that they remebered by name, my guess is none or at best Gen. Winston Choo (by virtue that he was the first CDF). If he is such a good leader, people should have remembered his name right?   I opined that to understand leadership, one has to undergoes a real crisis, nearing life and death situation. To me, leader is to convince his men to die for the country or what ever belief they fight/stand for.  People react differently under fire/crisis, the rank you wear, will not protect you from the selfish thinnking of men or worse.

I still remembered one of the fave question asked at Military Interview Board “What is a differences between a leader and manager?”  After all these years, I came out with this simple and concise answer.  One is lead by the heart, the other by the head.  To ask people to die, is NOT rational decision that people will accept and is can only be done thru the people’ hearts.  U need a heart to convince other heart, as the chinese proverb goes ”jiang xin bi xin”.

In the history of mankind, we human are good at killing off each other, the 2 Great Wars are the testimonies.  Let hope that when the next Great war starts, is not within our life time. For peace, i willing to accept the current “blur” definition of leadership and let those scholars at SAF spent their time daydreaming the ideal leadership model.